PERSONAL CINSUMPTION MODELLING IN THE REPUBLIC OF CROATIA BY USING THE ERROR CORRECTION MODEL

In this paper the authors presented a personal consumption modelling for Croatia by using the Error Correction Model. Time period considered stretches from 1970-2002, providing workable time series data and therefore derivation of reliable conclusions on
household sector behavior. EC model has standard set of independent variables: constant, i.e. short-term component
(current income), i.e. lagged long-term component (cointegration of income and consumption). Besides these standard components for modelling personal consumption dynamics, the existence of credit constraints for household sector also appeared to be significant. Estimated parameters have expected sign and are significant, with satisfying statistical properties (significant t and F statistics, absence of personal consumption function misspecification, absence of autocorrelation and heteroscedasticity, and stability of parameters).
At the end of the paper the authors provided personal consumption forecast in current and constant prices for 2003 based on the EC model.