MACROECONOMIC POLICY AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN CROATIA: CONDITION AND PERSPECTIVES

This paper considers main characteristics of economic growth in Croatia in past transitional period, evaluates perspectives of future economic growth and the role which specific measures of macroeconomic policy could have in promotion of these perspectives. In past period, economic growth in Croatia was directed by domestic demand increase and specific “transitional” factors, as it is improved resources allocation after implementation of market reforms and achievement of priče stability. Positive influence of these factors is limited only to short term. Further structural reforms and correlated development of marketly oriented infrastructure will surely positively influence growth in forthcoming years, but for realization of long-term sustainable high growth rates will be necessary to rely more upon standard determinants of growth which are suggested by neoclassical theory and theory of endogenous growth, as well as the results of numerous empirical researches. The estimate of change influence of particular indicators of economic policy shows that government expenditure decrease, investment increase, improvement of educational level and maintenance of macroeconomic stability would be policies which would most contribute to economic grovvth. Among policies which are not expressed by model, it is recognized the necessity of stronger openness of Croatian economy, i,ts inclusion into European integrational processes, dravving direct foreign investments and development of financial market with adequate regulations. It is also stressed the necessity of development of institutional frame which guarantees transparency, legal protection, fair market competition, protection of socially imperilled persons, and environment protection