CROATIAN PATH TOWARDS THE ERM 2: WHY, WHEN AND WHAT CAN WE LEARN FROM OUR PEERS?

In this paper we analyze different aspects of Croatian path to the monetary union and its current readiness to join the ERM 2 mechanism. Firstly, we present and discuss costs and benefits of euro adoption. Second, we use descriptive analysis to determine Croatia’s current position in relation to convergence criteria and discuss the possible timing of Croatian accession to the ERM 2. Thirdly, we analyze experiences of two NMS peers, Slovenia and Slovakia, before and after joining ERM 2 and highlight key lessons for Croatian policy makers. As Croatia is highly euroised (high FX risk) small and open economy, strongly integrated in EA trade and financial chains, with limited possibilities of monetary policy, the benefits of euro adoption would outweigh all commonly mentioned costs. Regarding convergence criteria, the biggest obstacle of Croatian access to ERM 2 mechanism is the level of public debt but recent developments and adjustments of SGP suggest that Croatia could satisfy the adjusted fiscal criteria already in several years. Experiences of Slovenia and Slovakia show that determined steps towards the euro (primarily ERM 2) can serve as an important policy credibility anchor and put a positive pressure on policy makers to preserve internal and external stability of the country and implement various structural reforms in order to achieve convergence with the euro zone members.