CAPITAL ACCOUNT LIBERALIZATION STRATEGY OF CROATIA

The liberalization of the capital account will necessarily require the application of different sequencing strategies dependently on the structure of capital flows, primarily capital inflows. A selective liberalization of the capital account – with a different sequencing of individual components of international capital flows – must be an integral part of the strategy of financial sector liberalization and of the national economy. Liberalization must necessarily be coordinated with stronger regulation and control of the financial markets in order to avoid the instability of the financial sector in Croatia and a possible financial crisis. Croatia’s accession to EMU, involves three phases: the first phase is the period before accession to EU, when the country can pursue an independent monetary policy and can freely choose its foreign exchange regime. The second phase starts with accession to EU and ends with accession to EMU. In this period the country enters the ERM2 mechanism. The third period involves accession to EMU and the ECB system, the introduction of the euro and the abolishment of the national currency. After an optimistic scenario, Croatia could became an EU member by 2012, when it would enter ERM2, and would introduce the euro in 2017, at earliest. A worsening of the recession in eurozone could have high negative impact on speed of Croatia’s entry in EMU, which could be thus realized in 2020.